Betfair Ascot Chase Preview

Kauto Star was the last winner of the Betfair Ascot Chase back in 2008 for Paul Nicholls. It is a race that has not been kind to the Ditcheat trainer. Pride of Dulcote fell when in contention in 2011, the useful  Cerium broke a blood vessel in 2007 and there have been a string of unplaced but useful types in the interim renewals. Nicholls saddles Ptit Zig, the favourite for this year’s Betfair Chase.

So let’s have a look at the main contenders for this year’s renewal:

Ptit Zig (15/8f) P Nicholls / S Twiston-Davies

Since finishing third in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham on only his second ever start, Ptit Zig has progressed nicely through the ranks. He won the 4yo Renaud Du Vivier Grade 1 hurdle in France shortly after his Cheltenham third and subsequently ran credibly in other Graded hurdle races including a respectable sixth in the Champion Hurdle. 

Since taking to fences, Ptit Zig is now unbeaten in four starts and is a worthy favourite for the Ascot Chase. He has a tendency however to make the odd mistake (hit the fourth last on his chase debut and was all wrong at the eight fence on his second start over fences) and this race will be his biggest ever test over fences. He easily accounted for Josses Hill in the Grade 2 Noel Novices' Chase at Ascot in December and followed up that win on New Year’s Day in the The Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham. Ptit Zig was raised two pounds for that performance and currently runs off a mark of 159. In his December column, Nicholls was of the opinion that Ptit Zig was marginally better on right handed tracks. Given that, Ascot suits, and his course record there reads 2 1 

He is a 6yo and still in his novice season, horses of that profile (the age) do not tend to win the Betfair Chase. I expect tomorrow to be no different as Ptit Zig, useful as he may be, (and he has an outstanding chance in the JLT) he may not have enough in the locker to beat a very competitive field. At the prices, on all known form and with a bounce anticipated, for me he is a lay, with Balder Success preferred.

Balder Success (5/2) A King / W Hutchinson

A tough, second-season chaser, Balder Success comes into his own around this time of year. He is ultra-consistent and was installed at the initial favourite for the Betfair Chase but all the money has come for Ptit Zig (15/8 from 11/4). Alan King is on record as saying "Fences have made a man of him" and praises the way the hose travels and well as his attitude. A dependable sort, Balder Success was fourth in a high-class renewal of the Tingle Creek last December before finishing second to Special Tiara (who received five pounds) in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase.

Last month Balder Success easily accounted for Hunt Ball and Fox Appeal (both rated in the 150+ bracket) in a listed Chase at Kempton. The trip in the Betfair Chase will suit, as will a strong pace.  Without conceding weight to the novice Ptit Zig, Balder Success has an outstanding chance of providing Alan King with another win in this race. He was successful in the 2009 renewal with the multiple Grade 1 winner Voy Por Ustedes and Balder Success will take all the beating tomorrow.

Ballycasey (4/1) W Mullins / R Walsh

It was around this time last year that Ballycasey won the Grade 1 Dr. P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown. It was only his second start over fences and he had the world at his feet. Things went rather south for the grey following this career best. Ballycasey finished fourth in the RSA Chase (where he failed to stay) before falling two out in the Powers Gold Cup when looking a likely winner. He again was out-stayed by Carlingford Lough in the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown but won at Gowran on his seasonal reappearance last November. 

Willie Mullins is again granting Ballycasey a light campaign this year but the trip of his last run (2m 1f) was a little sharp and he finished well down the field. The fact remains though that Ballycasey has won just one of the five Graded races that he has ran in, despite being favourite on almost all of those occasions. It is not that he is a disappointing horse, he just might not be fulfilling his potential. He is prone to making a mistake or two which has cost him races in the past. The trip at Ascot is ideal however and Willie Mullins has never sent a runner over to England to target this race – something to take on board in itself. He is a dangerous proposition but not without his question marks. If he is at the top of his game he has every chance but that is a big “if”.

Ma Filleule (9/2) N Henderson / B Geraghty

An impressive winner of the Topham at Aintree last year, Ma Fileule disappointed at Down Royal recently but scoped dirty afterwards. Third to Sam Winner at Aintree in a closely-run race on the Mildmay course at Aintree, the mare receives a seven pound allowance from the field tomorrow. There is more improvement to come from Ma Fileule but she has won just two handicap chases in her career. Interestingly, Timeform pronounce Ptit Zig to improve but admit that he will need to progress to the tune of around 10lb should either Ma Filleule or Balder Succes run their race.

She looks value but the bridge to her first Grade 1 success may be a bridge too far.

Other Runners:

The two outsiders Rajdhani Express and Theatre Guide (16/1 and 33/1) have a patchy record at best and are the odds belie their chances.

Conclusion:

Balder Success and Ballycasey to fight it out with the former to prevail.

Ptit Zig to win the JLT at Cheltenham

Horse Racing Industry News

Ladbrokes, who operate 213 betting shops in the Republic and 79 in Northern Ireland have announced a loss of almost 11% in net revenue for 2014 to date. Despite the boon provided by the World Cup, Ladbroke’s Irish operation also reported a 7.5% drop in betting stakes. Ladbroke’s performance in Ireland is indicative of problems within the wider group which has reported a drop of 33% in operating profit for the first half of the year. Despite closing 46 shops in 2014, Ladbrokes are suffering in the online space to rivals William Hill and Paddy Power. Hills in particular are vastly out performing them. Ladbrokes’s online business made £3m in operating profits this year whereas Hill’s made £92m during the same period. All of this has resulted in Ladbrokes share prices dropping by a full 27% from the start of the year. Ladbrokes CEO Richard Glynn remains optimistic about the growth of the online brand but has admitted it has taken longer than expected : "Mobile is the battleground now – there is no doubt about it. We only launched [our mobile product] six months ago. It is now bigger than desktop in digital. It is growing at a very good rate.” Despite the drop in earnings, Ladbrokes remain on course to meet their full-year profit target but if the remainder of the year turns out like the first half, Glynn may not be in the hot seat for 2015 as shareholders continue to be greatly concerned with its overall performance.

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Betfair have sold 50% of their Australian business to Australian gaming and entertainment group, Crown Resorts Limited, for A$10m. In doing so Betfair have raised speculation about a return of capital to their shareholders. The deal with Crown Resorts Limited will see Betfair continue to provide software and technology to the Australian business and will receive a share of revenues generated in the region. David Jennings, analyst at Davy said Betfair has "been very frustrated" by the tax treatment of betting exchanges in Australia "for many years". The sale was widely welcomed and CEO Breon Corcoran has continued to perform strongly since joining the Betting Exchange from Paddy Power in 2012. Corcoran received €179,000 in relocation costs when moving from Dublin to the UK to take the helm at Betfair but to his credit, shares at the company have risen by almost 50% since he joined in 2012.

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There was a mini bidding war between Gerry Griffin, Jim Culloty, Matt O'Connor and Aiden Murphy at the Tattersalls Ireland August National Hunt Sale for a three-year-old Milan gelding. Wexford’s Parkville Stud were delighted as their gelding was sold for €80,000 to Ryan Mahon on behalf of Paul Nicholls. Related to Woolcombe Folly, he will be trained at Ditcheat for a 2015 campaign. Overall trade was brisk at the three-day National Hunt Sale. Other notable mentions include John O'Byrne paid €60,000 for son of Presenting who is a half-brother to the 2013 Arkle hero Simonsig. Gerry Griffin, on behalf of Nicky Richard, parted with €58,000 for a son of Stowaway out of a winning half-sister to Champion Hurdle hero Rock On Ruby. Tattersalls announced that the 2014 sale vastly out-performed the 2013 one and were very pleased with the amounts realised.

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Under his remit as chairman of the European Pattern Committee, Brian Kavanagh has announced a number of changes to European sprint races for 2015. Among these changes include upgrades to races in Britain, France, Germany and Ireland. There will also be a new Group 1 6f race at Royal Ascot which will be worth £375,000. Kavanagh admitted that he felt that “there is a definite lack of top class European three-year-old sprinters” and the aim is to increase the quality and opportunities for trainers. Naas racecourse will benefit from the new sprint programme as their listed Lacken Stakes which is held in June is elevated from a Listed race to a Group 3. The Curragh too will have a new Group 2 race for older horses as the Greenlands 6f sprint is upgraded and both the Sapphire and Flying Five will also garner Group 2 status next year.

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If ever you visit a website and have the misfortune to click onto a missing link to a broken page, you will see a standard error message called a “404 error”. This indicates that the page cannot be found. Usually these 404 pages are drab affairs but some websites are a little more creative than others. Credit to RTE Sport who display a photograph of the great Shergar on their 404 error pages. The 1981 European horse of the year who was stolen by masked gunmen from Ballymany Stud in 1983 and remains on the missing list ever since. Gone, but not forgotten Shergar lives on in cyberspace in no small way due to the RTE technicians at Donnybrook as he reminds you that your website page, like the horse himself, unfortunately cannot be found.

Recent news

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As part of the much vaunted redesign of Leopardstown racecourse, their marketing team have launched a new brand identity which aims to capitalise on the recent success of attracting younger race goers. Incorporating the tagline ‘Dublin's heart is racing’, the design features a regal, purple background and heavily advertises the hospitality side of the operation.  On the back of the launch, Pat Keogh CEO of Leopardstown said: “The new brand identity portrays a modern, vibrant and contemporary design".  Opened in 1888 Leopardstown's design was based on Sandown Park but it now very much carries its own individuality.

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The search for the new CEO of Paddy Power is still in an early phase and although the company has until April 2015 to find a successor, their shot selection will be extremely astute. Although the new CEO is bound to meet challenges, particularly in a maturing online market, the CEO role is an extremely lucrative one. Patrick Kennedy is among the highest earners of any Irish company for some time now. Over the past decade, Kennedy has received shares worth €24.6m. He also has options of €4.7m and has received salaries totalling €15m. Far from Paddy Power to admit it is a cash cow but these figures tell a different story. Current front runners for the new CEO include Cormac Barry who joined Paddy Power in 2000 and currently runs Sportsbet, Paddy Powers Australian arm. Sportsbet is Australia's biggest corporate bookmaker and was acquired by Powers in 2009. Interesting times ahead.

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Three recent racecourse meetings in the UK raised eyebrows for all the wrong reasons. The official crowd figures for three turf meetings were paltry at best. 755 were in attendance at Brighton,  803 at Carlisle 803 and at Nottingham 830 souls braved the elements. There may not be much financial future for tracks based on those numbers and it serves as a warning for all Irish racecourses to stay on their guard.

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Denis Egan, head of the Turf Club has issued a shot across the bow when declaring that there are two separate cases pending about the banned practise of jockeys involvement in laying horses on betting exchanges. This comes in the wake of a four year ban and €10,000 fine handed down to 25-year old Eddie O’ Connell who pulled up the James Lambe-trained Yachvili at Downpatrick in 2011. Betfair subsequently notified the Turf Club about irregular betting patterns including a £10,000 bet which had been laid on Yachvili to not finish in the first three. O’ Connell is currently weighing up his options and his solicitor Andrew Coonan has stated that an appeal against the suspension is under consideration  HRI funding to the Turf Club has had its integrity budget reduced by almost a quarter since 2008 and now stands at €5.9m.

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Hard to imagine that 30 years have passed since the Ballydoyle second string Sadler's Wells beat Procida & Secreto to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. Before his death in 2011, Sadler’s Well was a fourteen-time champion Irish sire and had produced over 100 Group 1 winners worldwide and 23 classics in Great Britain, Ireland and France. His progeny have earned over €120,000,000. His bloodlines are still very dominant through Galileo and New Approach. Not bad going.

Recent News

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It has not been an easy time for Enniscorthy jockey Daryl Jacob of late. The 30 year old is currently recovering from a broken knee, leg and elbow after his mount Port Melon crashed into a rail on the way down to the start for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jacob has now received further bad news as he has lost the position of stable jockey to Paul Nicholls despite riding 57 winners for the trainer last season.

The newly crowned UK Champion Trainer announced on his Betfair column that Sam Twiston-Davies will assume the leading role at Ditcheat for the upcoming season. Jacob was offered the Number 2 position at Nicholl’s yard but turned it down, instead preferring to work as a freelance agent. Nick Scholfield will be second-in-command instead.

Speaking to the Press Association, Jacob said: “Paul offered me the job as number two, but at this point in my career I feel I want to go freelance, I will be available for more rides and hopefully some good rides. I’m very positive about what I am doing.”

Paul Nicholls was quick to add that there had been “no falling out” with Jacob, and that he would continue to ride for the stable. “Daryl will continue to ride out and school a couple of times a week here next season, and will ride for us when the opportunities arise, which I am sure they will.” Nicholls also confirmed that Sam Twiston-Davies will continue to ride The New One and Noel Fehily will continue to ride Silviniaco Conti.

Paddy Power reacted to the news positively and are are expecting Sam Twiston-Davies to ride plenty of winners for Nicholls, he is currently second in the market for leading jockey for their handicap market with + 45 winners.

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Horse Racing Ireland held a ‘Go Racing Kids’ Club’ Day at The Curragh Racecourse at which 250 fifth and sixth class local primary school pupils attended. The initiative aims to foster ties between the local community and the racecourse and to instil an interest in horse racing which will hopefully blossom down the line.

There were demonstrations from R.A.C.E. (Racing Academy & Centre of Education) and local farrier, Donal Bennett as well as a talk from Bryan Cooper and Mark Bolger. The pupils also met Racecourse Manager, Paul Hensey who explained to them how the team at The Curragh Racecourse prepares for a race day.

Evan Arkwright, Commercial Manager at The Curragh Racecourse, commented: “The Go Racing Kids Club Day is a great opportunity for the Curragh to promote horse racing to the younger generation in particular to the many kids who have never been to the races”.

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Once again The Punchestown Festival delivered. It is now without question Ireland’s largest annual corporate hospitality event and the five day racing spectacle contributed over €70 million to the local economy. The numbers look impressive too, 100,000 people attended and 726 national, international and local companies were involved in the Festival.

There was a significant rise in interest from the UK market with the Punchestown ticket office reporting a 20% rise in UK-based Ticket and Hospitality bookings. 20,000 were drawn from across the water, a very substantial figure. This was very much in line with overall pre-sales of tickets up a third on last year.

With the prize money increased by 14% to €2.5million, The Punchestown Festival is living up to its billing as “The Irish Cheltenham”. For those in the hinterlands of Newbridge and Naas, expectations appear to be surpassed on a yearly basis.

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Ladbrokes revenues for its 300 Irish betting offices fell by 13% in the first quarter of 2014, a result which was attributed to football results. Monetary values of bets also declined by 3%  and management conceded that this had been a “difficult year” for the Irish arm of the betting giant. This is now a continued trend for the company and pressure must be mounting on Chief Executive Richard Glynn.

Ladbrokes have been extremely slow to gain a market share of the online space, an area in which Paddy Power have invested heavily and reaped suitable rewards. Although Ladbrokes have teamed up with software developer Playtech to help serve the growing number of gamblers who bet on sports events through their computer, tablet or smartphone, they still have a mountain to climb.

Despite the results, Ladbrokes said it was committed to a dividend pay-out this year of at least 8.9p per share, in line with 2013. profit downgrades over the past two years have piled pressure on Bookmaker William Hill has also announced that it would close 109 loss-making shops this year

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Recent news

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Meath jockey Colin Keane weighed in at 1.7 lbs overweight after a Navan maiden aboard Princess Tamay last weekend and received a one day ban in unusual circumstances. Evidence was heard from the rider who stated that he had a drink of water which caused the fluctuation. Keane also facilitated the trainer of his mount, T.G. McCourt, by changing the girths after weighing out as they were too loose in the filly. The trainer admitted to the stewards that the original girth was too loose without informing the Clerk of the Scales. T.G. McCourt was found to be in breach of the rules and was subsequently cautioned.

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Back when Arkle was running, the Irish Turf Club implemented two handicap systems for the Irish Grand National. One was used when Arkle was in the race and the other when he was not. It is now fifty years since Himself won the 1964 Irish Grand National when he carried two and a half stone more than his rivals. Arkle won the race that day by a length at Fairyhouse for trainer Tom Dreaper and now, half a century late the Dreaper yard saddle two horses with a strong chance in this year’s renewal of the Irish Grand National. Both Goonyella and Los Amigos have been supported in the betting and punters can avail of 7/1 with Boylesports for Jim Dreaper to train the winner of the race. It would be more than fitting if this was to happen given the family connections.

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Having only started training with six horses in 2005, David Marnane is holding an open day at his stables in Bansha Co. Tipperary on Sunday April 27^th. The day will include meeting David and his team, viewing the horses on the gallops and seeing the training facilities on show. Complimentary refreshments will be served and the morning will provide a great opportunity to meet David and learn more about how his operation works. If you wish to attend on the morning, email Aidan McGarry at amcgarry@itm.ie or telephone 045 443000, confirming your name, email address and mobile number.

After an accomplished career as an amateur jockey, Marnane moved to Dubai in 1997 where he joined Champion Trainer in Dubai, Kieran McLaughlin, and in later years, Doug Watson. Over the past few seasons he has trained many progressive domestic winners and enjoyed success at Meydan

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No less than twelve riders received suspensions of between two and four days at Tramore on April 13^th following an incident in the Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase. The incident came to light following a report by Turf Club Starter P.L. Malone to the Stewards that all twelve jockeys had disobeyed his instructions by coming forward without being instructed to in this race. M.P. Butler, J.S. McGarvey, K.C. Sexton, C.M. Walsh, B. Hayes, F.J. Hayes, S.E. Butler, I.J. McCarthy,S.J. Crimin, D.E. Splaine, A. Ring and B.R. Dalton were deemed to be at fault and will serve their suspensions presently.

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Viewership of Channel 4’s racing coverage continues to tumble as figures released recently make poor showing. The Morning Line is down 18.5 per cent on 2013 while Aintree figures are down 19 percent. Since the departure of John McCririck, Alistair Down and John Francome, the refreshed format and presenting team of Clare Balding and Nick Luck have not struck a chord with the racing public as a whole. The lack of dynamism and the increase in novelty segments has clearly not worked. A recent episode of the Morning Line had a link with a milk man travelling around on his daily milk run dressing up as a jockey and then going into Aintree. Ted Walsh was also less than impressed when Channel 4 had a “psychic pig” pick out the winner of the Champion Hurdle. Unfortunately the selection was Our Conor. Walsh summed the whole episode up as " pretty pathetic really". A description which could easily be extended to the current viewing figures of Channel 4 racing.

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In Chengdu, China, there was a race meeting held last week. Of course since betting on horse racing was outlawed by Chairman Mao in 1949, there was no gambling at the event. Still this may be taken as a positive step forward and in May, Hong Kong hosts the Asian Racing Federation Conference and which will include sessions on racing in China, its current state and its prospects. In gambling-mad Hong Kong, will the allure of the bookmakers be allowed a foothold. It remains to be seen.

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A newcomer to the betting exchanges asked a well-seasoned member the following question:

 “I would like to lay the favourite in every horse race. What's the easiest method of doing this?”

The reply came:

 “Just send a cheque to Betfair each month. Perhaps a standing order would be best.”

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