The Big Four
By
Stephen Dwyer
The odds are
stacked against them. 16/1 is the current price for the big four to retain
their crown. Hurricane Fly, Big Buck’s, Sizing Europe and Long Run are all
worthy champions but surely something has to give ?
Cheltenham is no
time to get heavily involved in short priced favourites. In recent Festivals
the hotpots of Dunguib, Kauto Star and Master Minded were all beaten at odds of
4/5 or shorter. In 2011 Cue Card, Time for Rupert, Master Minded and Poquelin
started around the 2/1 mark and again failed to win or in some cases, even
place. No question that the “big four” are class acts but there are too many
variables for them all to win this year. Although all are proven at Prestbury
Park, it is a tall order to win there two years in a row.
Hurricane Fly, the
reigning Champion Hurdler faces the toughest race of his career on Tuesday. Granted
he was mightily impressive in last year’s renewal but faces a young improver in
Zarkandar and an in-form Binocular. He had Peddler’s Cross, Oscar Whisky and
Thousand Stars behind him in 2011 but none of these are as quick as Binocular
on his day. There is one negative against Binocular in that the last winner of
the Christmas Hurdle to go on and to Champion Hurdle success was Dawn Run in
1984. Binocular was held by Hurricane Fly at Punchestown last May and it is
difficult to see him beating a horse considered by many to be as good, if not
better than Istabraq. Last word on this to Tony Mullins who said at a recent
preview night that “even another outbreak
of foot and mouth won’t stop Hurricane Fly”.
Big Bucks
rightly dominates the market for the World Hurdle. At the prohibitive odds of
4/9, he is expected to continue his unbeaten run over the extended trip and
remain the highest rated National Hunt horse in the world. Oscar Whiskey and Thousand
Stars provide the immediate opposition but the statistics are against them.
Both ran in the Champion Hurdle last year and it is twenty years since a winner
of the World Hurdle previously ran in the Champion Hurdle. That said pundit Mick
Fitzgerald doesn’t rule out Oscar Whisky: “He
will (Big Bucks) be beaten one day and Oscar Whisky could be the one to do it”.
The Irish have also not had a winner of this race in seventeen years and in
reality Big Buck’s is as close to a certainty as you will get at Cheltenham
where his odds are the shortest of the entire Festival.
Winner of a
Greatwood Hurdle, Arkle and Champion Chase, Sizing Europe will make a very bold
bid to retain his title for 2012. He looked the most likely winner of the 2008
Champion Hurdle before almost stopping to a halt due to injury and has done
nothing but improve this season. As good
as Sizing Europe may be however it is work mentioning that 10 of the last 11
defending Champion Chase winners were beaten when attempting to defend their
title the following year. Nine of those started favourite or second-favourite. At
Cheltenham last year Sizing Europe led home an Irish 1-2-3-4, no doubt an
in-form Big Zeb will pose a challenge but more may come from Finian's Rainbow.
Nicky Henderson believes Finian's Rainbow to be a more settled horse this term
and his jumping has improved and is lightly raced. Sizing Europe may have them
all on the stretch as he did last year and as it stands he is the one they all
have to beat. It will take a very good horse to muscle past him.
Amateur riders
only win the Gold Cup once every 30 years. Does this mean that after success in
this race last year that Long Run cannot win again ? Connections believe that
he can and none more so than his Corinthian pilot Mr. Sam Waley-Cohen. There
are doubts as to whether Long Run has trained on since beating a below-par
Kauto Star last year but Cheltenham plays to his strengths. The extra distance will
suit but he has been held by Kauto Star all season. Nine of the last 12 Gold
Cup winners won the King George the same year and Ruby Walsh has adopted
different tactics with Kauto Star this year. Long Run has to settle early in
his races as he is prone to jumping errors. There could be a big priced winner
of the Gold Cup this year as there are doubts over Kauto Star’s age (just two 12
year old winners of the race and in the last 12 running’s of the Gold Cup, 59
horses aged 10 or older have been beaten). The amateur jockey aboard Long Run
is also a negative for many who pin their main hope on believing Long Run’s class will see him
though.
From a betting
perspective, the 6/4 available for a Hurricane Fly/Big Buck’s double is still
short but attainable. Tread carefully however as over the last four years there have been 67 horses to
start under 4/1 and only 12 have won (with Quevega and Big Buck’s multiple
winners).
Time then to
enjoy but not lose your shirt, after all there are only four days in the year;
the rest aren’t Cheltenham.
