The Real Deal

The Real Deal

By Stephen Dwyer

“He is the real deal, he hardly came off the bridle”. So said trainer Dessie Hughes who was surprisingly generous with some very lavish compliments after Our Conor beat the best four year olds in Ireland last weekend. Dessie, Gold Cup winner on Davy Lad, Champion Hurdle winner aboard Monksfield, father of Richard Hughes. Dessie, trainer of  dual Champion Hurdle winner Hardy Eustace, knows what it takes for a horse to be the real deal, for anything to be real deal for that matter. Our Conor is just that.

Now outright favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, Our Conor is the best horse that Dessie Hughes has trained since Hardy Eustace. Rated 145, he already holds the same mark as Don Cossack and is very close in the ratings to established performers like Tarla and Rule The World. He is the youngest horse in the Ireland’s top twenty-rated hurdlers and he is a better horse on better ground. In other words the best is yet to come, if this happens at Cheltenham, he wins the Triumph Hurdle.

But Our Conor comes from humble beginnings. He was bought for €4,500 at the Tattersalls September Yearling Sale in 2010 and in his first outing on the Curragh, he finished a distant ninth at 33/1 in a very ordinary 10f maiden. Very ordinary as only two out of the first six home would win a race, certainly not brilliant form. But Our Conor won his next start, over 7f at Roscommon. He won the start after that at Naas and finished third in a Handicap at Leopardstown over 1 mile 2f next time out. Dessie Hughes had earmarked a race at Galway for him after the Naas win and he would go very close in that too. Succumbing by a nose to the stoutly-bred Diplomat, trained by the King of Ballybrit, Dermot Weld, Our Conor could not concede 3lbs in the weights to the Weld horse. It was a good run however and he would run one more time on the flat, finishing third in a valuable handicap at Killarney.

With a rating of 84 on the flat, Our Conor was never going to be a superstar. You need to have at least a triple digit rating to realistically contest the bigger races so connections schooled him over hurdles. This was no surprise, the horse was purchased to be a dual-purpose animal and he always schooled well at home. After his first run over hurdles at Navan, Dessie Hughes stated simply “He can jump!”. Hyperbole at its finest, but jump he could. Our Conor finished a good 8 ½ lengths ahead of the second placed horse and was well supported at odds of 8/13 favourite. Taking a step up in class, the horse easily accounted for Stocktons Wing at Fairyhouse in the Grade 3 Bar One Racing Juvenile hurdle. The reports from the Hughes stable following this race were positive again, “He's a good leaper and he has a turn of foot. He has everything you need.”

Our Conor is by Jersey Stakes winner Jeremy, who sired the Group Three Concorde Stakes and Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner Yellow Rosebud. He has plenty of speed and Flamands, his Dam is by Sadler’s Wells, she won twice over middle distances on the flat at Newmarket and Chester for Luca Cumani. He cemented his place at the head of the Triumph Hurdle market after his latest win at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle, a race worth almost €70,000. Willie Mullins was double-handed in this race with Diakali and Blood Cotil who were both believed to be the very best juvenile hurdlers in the Mullins yard. Both were expensive French-bred horses, both unbeaten in their two respective starts over hurdles in Ireland.

 After his win in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas,  Willie Mullins compared Blood Cotil to Scloardy who won the Triumpy hurdle for the yard in 2002. Both he and Diakali carried serious reputations entering the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Our Conor always travelled well in the race and although made a two minor hurdling errors  never came off the bridle to win the Grade 1 event comfortably. Back to Dessie Hughes again who noted; “He finished his race well and it is great to see him staying so well, that's what he'll need for his next race (the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham).”

But the Triumph Hurdle is not straightforward. You need to travel very well throughout and need lots of luck as it is always run at a furious pace. Some seriously good horses have won this in recent times, Zarkandar, Celestial Halo and Detroit City typify the British stranglehold on the race. Apart from Scolardy, the only other Irish winner in the past twenty years was the Ted Walsh-trained Commanche Court in the 1997 renewal.

There have been plenty of well-fancied Irish horses who have run well, but not won the Triumph. Unaccompanied was second to Zarkander, even with a 7lb fillies allowance. Carlito Brigante was a well-beaten fourth (and 7/2 favourite) to Soldatino and Lounaos (also 7/2 favourite) could only finish tenth for Eoin Griffin when Katchit won the race. Lounaos had also won two of the hurdle races that Our Conor has won this term and fits a similar profile but Our Conor is a little more imposing and should take some beating if run handily.

Cut from 12/1 to 5/1 after Leopardstown, Our Conor faces stiff opposition from both Paul Nicholl’s runner Far West and Rolling Star trained by Nicky Henderson. Far West won the Triumph hurdle trials in November and Decembers and he stayed on strongly particularly when the ground was that bit better in November. If Far West keeps progressing for Paul Nicholls, his 8/1 price would be good value. Rolling Star won over hurdles in France and is a previous Cheltenham winner . He beat the well-regarded Irish Saint in the Grade 2 Triumph Trial two weeks ago and Barry Geraghty has reported that the horse will improve again.

On bare form, Our Conor has a great chance in the Triumph, especially on the back of what he has done to the Mullins horses. The dream is alive now for his connections so if you like him, take a price about him now because there is a wall of Irish money and prayers going to be placed on the shoulders of this boy.

The Triumph Hurdle carries prize money of £120,000. If he wins, it will be long way from that ninth at the Curragh.

Cheltenham Festival 2013

 

Cheltenham Festival 2013

 

By Stephen Dwyer

 

 

It is the jewel in the crown of the jumps season. From Tuesday March 12th to Friday March 15th, the most elite horses, trainers and jockeys in the world of equine talent converge upon the Cotswolds for the Cheltenham Festival. Worth over £50 million to the local economy, the Festival attracts almost a quarter of a million visitors each year.  

To the UK and Irish betting industries, the Cheltenham Festival fundamentally affects the annual profits of bookmakers on both sides of the Irish sea. Ten years ago, when favourites won half of the races at the meeting, several major bookmaking firms reported lower than expected profits for the year, attributed in no small part to “unfavourable results” at Cheltenham.
Such is the scale of the betting frenzy that the Festival also accounts for around 10 per cent of the Tote’s annual on-course pool betting turnover. On average at least £1 million changes hands on every race in the betting ring at the racecourse, with over 250 bookmakers in attendance for each day of the four day meeting. Attracting the owners and connections, aside from the prestige of having a Cheltenham winner, is the extraordinary prize money. With a  total prize fund of over £3.8 million, the average race is worth in excess of £141,000.

Four championship races form the centrepiece for each of the days at the Festival and the competition for each of the events is especially strong this year. The Stan James Champion Hurdle includes no less than four previous winners in Rock On Ruby, Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Punjabi. The prize fund for the race this year has never been higher, at £400,000  it has been increased by £30,000 from the 2012 level.
At the head of the market is the 2010 winner Hurricane Fly. Available generally at 3/1 Hurricane Fly recently equalled Istabraq’s record of fourteen Grade 1 wins over hurdles. There is no doubt that Hurricane Fly is the  best hurdler since Istabraq, he boasts a  better winning record, has never fallen and Ruby Walsh is on record as saying the ‘Fly has so much speed he could win a Group 1 on the flat if he wanted to.

No horse has won back the Festival Champion Hurdle since Comedy of Errors in 1975, but if there is one who can defy that statistic, it is Hurricane Fly. He cast aside the “Montjeu” curse in 2011, where no progeny of Montjeu had won at the Festival and he has a very realistic chance of regaining his title this year. Many punters will be a lot happier taking 3/1 for him now than the 4/7 last year when he was not a sound horse, coughing a week before the race and was not right on the day when beaten into third. It is also worth noting that his trainer Willie Mullins has either the favourite or second favourite in 14 of the 27 races at the Cheltenham Festival. This is a true reflection on the strength in depth at Closutton and Hurricane Fly is quite happy to lead the charge, as he does at home on the gallops. Hurricane Fly is nine now and there have only been three winners over the age of eight for the last 58 years, he faces a tough task yes, but not an impossible one.

On Ladies Day, the feature race is the Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase. With £350,000 on offer, is seems a penalty kick for Sprinter Sacre. Beaten only twice in his thirteen races, Sprinter Sacre is an astonishing horse. He remains unbeaten over fences and has been supported from 11/10 into 2/5 for the race. He was a seven length winner of the Arkle Chase at last year’s festival where his performance was simply described by Sporting Life as “awesome”. Progressing greatly in his career as a second-season chaser, Sprinter Sacre has subsequently won three Grade 1 races since last year’s Festival by a combined distance of 42 lengths. It is very difficult to identify chinks in his armour, his jumping is impeccable and he has a devastating turn of foot. The only conceivable cause for concern is that the horse has yet to make a serious mistake over fences and does he have the ability to recover from a jumping error. In truth he probably does and Sprinter Sacre should become the fifth winning favourite in the Champion Chase in the last ten years.

When Paul Nicholls broke the news last December that Big Buck’s sustained a leg injury and would be out for the season, it was greeted with dismay by the racing public. The only horse to win four successive Ladbrokes World hurdle titles at Cheltenham, Big Buck’s had won eighteen races in a row before his injury. Connections are hopeful that the horse will return to training and his defection from this year’s World Hurdle means that it is the most open renewal of the race in some years. Nicky Henderson’s Oscar Whiskey finished fifth to Big Buck’s last year and recently ran Reve De Sivola to a neck in the Cleeve Hurdle over three miles. Oscar Whiskey does have plenty of class, he was third in a Champion Hurdle, won the Welsh Champion Hurdle and has won around Cheltenham four times. After the Cleeve Hurdle, Rory Jiwani of Stan James said, "Nick Williams' charge is definitely on an upward curve and he just saw off Oscar Whisky with the pair well clear. We've cut Reve de Sivola from 6/1 to 4/1 favourite for the World Hurdle”. Where Reve de Sivola is a proven stayer, with just 6 wins from 23 starts, he does not have the class of Oscar Whisky. Should Nicky Henderson’s 8yo stay the trip and get his ground, he would be a popular winner.

On the last day of the Festival, the Blue Riband of jump racing takes centre stage. With £550,000 on offer, the most valuable prize of the Festival is the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup. There was over £50 million staked on the 2012 renewal of the Gold Cup alone which took the turnover for the week above £300 million. Hennessy Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth is the outright 3/1 favourite, he won the 2012 RSA chase and has never been beaten at Cheltenham from his four starts. His trainer Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer of all time at The Festival with 46 victories and is very keen on the chances of Bobs Worth. The 2011 winner and last year’s third, Long Run is 7/1 for the race and Willie Mullins saddles Sir Des Champs who is 9/2 and has won both the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and the Jewson Novices' Chase at Cheltenham. The race appears to be between the main market protagonists although Silviniaco Conti for Paul Nicholls has an each way chance if handling the extended trip. Interestingly a new Cheltenham Gold Cup is minted each year. There is 10 ounces of gold in the trophy, which makes it worth around £11,000 and it will find a new home in 2013.

In wrapping it all up I recall attending the Festival some years ago I met an elderly gentleman who said  something very fitting; “there are four days in a year, the rest aren’t Cheltenham.”

Never a truer word was spoken.

 

Ireland’s RSA Hopes

Ireland’s RSA Hopes

 

By Stephen Dwyer

 

 

They say it’s a hard race, and they are right. It’s a big ask for a novice to jump nineteen fences over three miles and 110 yards, harder still when it’s at Cheltenham and to be expected to win there. The RSA is run over the Old course at Prestbury Park, like the New course, it is testing and undulating. Stiff fences and sheer left-hand turns sap the life out of all but the toughest horses and the 350-yard uphill finish has put a firm stop to many plans of victory.

That said, you don’t need to be a world beater to win an RSA. Guts will do, plenty of them though, and  the ability to jump downhill and travel well within yourself. Seven seems to be the magic number too, as eleven of the last thirteen winners of the RSA were seven year olds, the younger horses often bypass the race for an easier challenge. Case in point, Timmy Murphy noted that horses are going three strides quicker in the RSA than any other novice race and for that reason preferred to see the progressive Our Father take his chances in the National Hunt Chase over four miles.

And onto the theory that the RSA is a hard race, out of the last ten winners of the RSA four horses did not complete their next race. Weapon’s Amnesty pulled up, One Knight fell and both Rule Supreme and Bostons Angel were unseated. The argument may be made that some of these results were simply jumping errors in a jumping theatre or it could equally be made that the RSA took its toll. But a forty per cent failure to finish ratio cannot be lightly dismissed. By comparison, out of the last ten running’s of the Arkle Chase, comparable in that it is for for novices, the only horse not to finish his race next time out was Azertyuiop when unseating at the first in the Haldon Gold Cup. Starting with Sprinter Sacre the next-race record for Arkle winners was 113215271U compared to 1UP43111UF for the RSA, a comparable win percentage but much higher for non-finishers.

And then to the Irish hopes, it would seem Boston Bob leads the way. He had an unhappy time of it last year at the Festival when unable to make up lost ground to Brindisi Breeze in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over 3m. He was strongly fancied for that race and backed into 6/5 favourite but left his followers disappointed. We were left with the feeling that he never really got into the race as Brindisi Breeze found plenty up the hill and ran away a deserved winner. But Boston Bob was always made to be a chaser. His debut over 2m4f at Navan did not elicit a lot of praise, he was niggled two fences from home but evidently found enough to win by half a length. Not the performance you would expect for a horse which was 1/5 on the day. Going on bare form, the second that day, You Must Know Me was beaten 22 lengths next time out when 9/10 favourite so it seems that Boston Bob should be bigger than his current odds of 6/1 for the RSA. He will need a run before the Festival and this is likely to come in the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase over 2m 5f at Leopardstown this Saturday. This race is always an interesting trial for the RSA and Willie Mullins has won both this and the RSA twice before, with Florida Pearl (1998) and Cooldine (2009). It was also achieved by Bostons Angel (2011 so it will be an interesting challenge for Boston Bob.

Two other Willie Mullin’s runners, Aupcharlie and Back In Focus are close in the betting, at about 12/1 and 16/1 respective. All of Aupcharlie’s three wins have come on ground with some cut in it but he was third in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper in 2011 so he does hold respectable course form. He has been second twice over three miles, beaten only a head and half a length on these starts. Aupcharlie travels well within himself during races but his jumping needs to improve slightly if he is to play a part in the RSA. Back In Focus, an ex-Howard Johnson gelding fits the profile a shade more positively. He has progressed nicely over fences and is three from three, winning a beginners chase, Grade 2 and Grade 1 within 11 weeks. He rallied well under pressure to beat Aupcharlie in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown last time out and he too holds an entry in the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase. He has been compared in his ways to Tidal Bay in his early days but he seems more straightforward. A negative is his form on good ground, he was beaten almost a distance on his only run on good ground at Aintree but he could well be a grinder and that sort does well in the RSA.

The Gigginstown army are represented by Tofino Bay trained by Dessie Hughes. A general 16/1 chance, he is a ten year old and this in itself is a huge negative. No ten year old has won the RSA, (Birthlaw won it aged 11 in 1946 and Minnehoma in 1992 was the oldest at 9 to win the race.) He has won the Troytown and Woodlands Park Grade 2 Chase but his age is enough of a detractor.

The useful Lord Windermere trained by Jim Culloty may have more of a chance than Tofino Bay. At 7 he fits the age profile and has been running well over fences. He finished ahead of the well-touted Marito over 2m 5f in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown so he should get the trip at Cheltenham. He ran well enough on goodish ground in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing ahead of Captain Conan and Cash And Go so if he steps up in trip it will be interesting.

In a race where favourites have a poor enough record, even for the festival, Dynaste is short but the Irish have a decent recent record and it may prove so in a couple of weeks time.

BAU at Leopardstown

BAU at Leopardstown

 

By Stephen Dwyer

 

 

There is a colloquial term within large corporations which refers to everything running within normal parameters. BAU, or Business As Usual might be one of those “Americanisms”  that has slipped into our vocabulary but it perfectly describes events in the Irish Champion Hurdle last Sunday. It was BAU for Hurricane Fly as he captured his third successive win in the Grade 1 event, barely breaking sweat.

Conditions were outrageous, driving sleet and snow paid havoc with the going and jockeys reported the ground to be as testing as it had ever been at the Foxrock venue. No matter for the ‘ Fly, three flights from home he cruised into second position and from there coasted to the line, eased down by five lengths. Around Leopardstown that is his aggregate winning distance, unbeaten in six starts at the track it was a fitting setting to capture his fourteenth win at the highest level.

Much was made of the opposition on Sunday and just five went to post but in truth Binocular and Thousand Stars were always playing for second place. And so it came to pass. Barely a nose separated the two as Tony McCoy was held by Paul Townend for the runner-up spot. Though rated four pounds higher than Thousand Stars, Binocular had not run for 320 days and carried condition, in abundance. In truth it was a good effort from the former Champion Hurdler and improvement is assured.

Binocular’s performance attracted the attention of the stewards who accepted the reason for the placing was essentially a lack of match fitness. Many of those in attendance felt that more use should have been made of Binocular but the reality is that he is a hold up horse. When winning  the Kingwell and Christmas Hurdles, he did so from off the pace, he is a horse that needs to be nursed into a race. Overturn beat him the Fighting Fifth in no small part due to Binocular racing far too keenly early on and it was the same in the Irish Champion Hurdle when he ran at Punchestown, he kicked off and led early and could not stay on at the business end.

To run Thousand Stars to a nose was a good effort, Thousand Stars is a dual French Champion Hurdle winner who has already ran twice this season and it is hard to understand what was expected  from Binocular. In the end he finished 29 lengths ahead of Captain Cee Bee who has already won a Group 2 hurdle this season so he is no slouch.

But the day belonged to Hurricane Fly. He finished up the 1/6 favourite, 1/10 on the Tote, the shortest priced winner of the race in living memory, even Istabraq finished at a bigger but equally unbackable price of 2/9 when winning the third of his Irish Champion Hurdles in 2000 in a similarly small contest. There is no doubt that Hurricane is the best hurdler since Istabraq. He boasts a better winning record,  has never fallen and has amassed more prize money despite running less races than Istabraq.  For the record Istabraq raced over hurdles 29 times, winning 23 races and £1,007,957. Hurricane Fly has raced 19 times over hurdles, winning 16 of these and accumulating £1,020,574 in prize money.

But it is a moot point comparing the two. Success in the present is only shattered by comparison with the past. Right now Hurricane Fly is top of the heap. Ruby Walsh is on record as saying that the horse has so much speed he could win a Group 1 on the flat if he wanted to. He won’t get off the ‘Fly in March, nothing in Paul Nicholls yard has a better chance and at present Ruby is being diplomatic, an understandable position.

In just over eight weeks’ time, Hurricane Fly attempts to win back the Champion Hurdle crown that is lost to Rock On Ruby in 2011. He has a tough task in front of him. No horse has won back the Festival Champion Hurdle since Comedy of Errors in 1975, but if there is one who can defy that statistic, it is Hurricane Fly. He cast aside the “Montjeu” curse in 2011 and can do so again in March. I would be a lot happier taking 3/1 for him now than the 4/7 last year when he was not a sound horse, coughing a week before the race, gifting eleven lengths to Rock On Ruby at Cheltenham and had an off day, it happens.

That his trainer Willie Mullins has either the favourite or second favourite in 14 of the 27 races at the Cheltenham Festival is just a reflection on the strength in depth at Closutton and Hurricane Fly is quite happy to lead the charge, as he does at home on the gallops.

Out of interest, we must correct Willie Mullins who recently said that the very useful Pont Alexandre was the first horse he put into Grade 1 for his first run over hurdles,  but he was wrong. This honour fell to Hurricane Fly who won the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse as a 4 year old That will tell you the regard that he has for Pont Alexandre.

Pont Alexandre has a long way to go before being compared with Hurricane Fly but a good start is half the battle.

I hope Ruby remembers that when he lines up at the start of the Champion Hurdle on March 12th.

January Jumps

January Jumps

By Stephen Dwyer

Hurricane Fly / Ruby Walsh @Irish Champion Hurdle

January is typically one of the quieter months in the horse racing calendar. After the seasonal highlights of Newbury, Ascot. Kempton and Chepstow in December, many of the top trainers use the month as a rest period before Cheltenham. But where the season lulls in January there are still many important races to be contested. There is a Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock and the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot but one of the meatiest racing offerings is in Ireland at the January Jumps Festival in Leopardstown.  

The January Jumps weekend was the brainchild of Leopardstown CEO Pat Keogh. First run in 2012, it is now a permanent fixture following impressive attendances of almost 13,000 at the inaugural meeting. Encouraged by how the January Jumps weekend was received, Pat Keogh of Leopardstown noted "Having spoken to a number of people, many of them from Britain, over the weekend we were very encouraged as many of them said they would come again and we are promoting the two-day meeting more widely, around Ireland as well as in Britain, for 2013," said Keogh, who described the weekend as "a huge success".

Run on Saturday 26^th and Sunday 27^th January there is a seven race card on each of the days including two Grade 1 and two Grade 2 races. Among these include the Boylesports.com Handicap Hurdle and the BHP Irish Champion Hurdle. First run in 1969 as the Irish Sweeps Hurdle and subsequently named The Ladbroke Hurdle and Pierce Hurdle, the Boylesports.com Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles is a major source of handicap hurdling form for the season ahead including major handicaps at Cheltenham. The race was one of the traditional Champion Hurdle trials in the 1970s when Persian War, Night Nurse and Comedy Of Errors (who collectively won seven Champion Hurdles) all won at Leopardstown. In 2011 Willie Mullins trained Final Approach who proved an impressive winner of the MCR Hurdle and went on to score in the Vincent O´ Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. 

There is also significant industry weight behind the January Jumps program. In November 2011, Boylesports and Leopardstown signed a major three-year sponsorship deal. Included in this sponsorship, Boylesports are offering the potential of €150,000 worth of bonuses each year should any horse complete the Leopardstown and Cheltenham Festival double. There is a €100,000 bonus to the winner of the Grade 2  Boylesports.com Hurdle should the winner go on to win at Cheltenham and €50,000 if a horse completes the Irish/English Arkle double.

And that Irish Arkle is an intriguing race, it was also at Leopardstown in the Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (The Irish Arkle) that Flemenstar ,now joint-favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, displayed one of the most commanding rounds of jumping all season, winning by an eventual nineteen lengths. The Irish Arkle however has not been a great indicator for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham, the last horse winning both was Klairon Davis in 1995. Whether Tony Martin’s Dedigout and Willie Mullin’s Arvika Ligeonniere line out in the race is yet undecided but Jessica Harrington is likely to target the race for Oscars Well. A faller at the third fence last time out in the Craddockstown Novice Chase over two miles at Punchestown, Oscars Well started an odds on favourite that day and connections will be keen to make amends. Willie Mullins may also saddle the French-bred Twinlight who has won three times over fences. A useful front runner, Twinlight was third to Grandouet and Kumbeshwar in the Grade 1 Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown in his first season and he looks a very interesting contender over fences. 

The Boylesports.com Grade 2 novice Chase over the extended two miles and five furlongs is also a very important pre-Cheltenham trial. Won by Sir Des Champs last year, who was the youngest horse in the race and also carried top weight, this novice Chase is worth noting as year on year the form lines prove strong. 

The highlight of the entire Festival is the Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle over two miles. This is traditionally a showcase race for Ireland’s top hurdlers and has been won by Hatton's Grace, Dawn Run, Istabraq and in recent years Sizing Europe, Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly. Seen as one of the most significant pre-Cheltenham Champion Hurdle races, it is worth over €100,000 in prize money and seen as a true test of speed jumping. In truth, it revolves around one horse, Hurricane Fly who has one eye on regaining his Champion Hurdle Crown at Cheltenham.

Hurricane Fly was bred in Ireland and sold as a yearling at Goffs for €65,000. He was sent to France and subsequently bought out of the Jean-Luc Pelletan yard for an undisclosed sum on the advice of bloodstock agent Richard Hobson. The acquisition by Hobson (who is also responsible for the purchase of Golden Silver and Pomme Tiepy) was on behalf of retired Belfast construction worker George Creighton and Rose Boyd who runs an equestrian centre in Co. Down. At Leopardstown, Willie Mullin’s Hurricane Fly is seeking a hat trick in the race and it is extremely difficult to see past him. 

Although beaten when 4/6 favourite in last year’s Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, he ran below his best that day and sweated up badly beforehand and can be forgiven the run. Recently he was a twelve length winner of the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown in November when defeating Captain Cee Bee by twelve lengths. Beaten just once in Ireland (when incurring a mid-race injury) Hurricane Fly is the most outstanding hurdler since Istabraq. He ran out an easy 6 ½ length winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle last year when beating Oscars Well and Thousand Stars in a small field when just five went to post against the brilliant ‘Fly. The eight year old son of Montjeu is unbeaten in all four starts around Leopardstown and his average winning distance at the track is 5 ½ lengths. In his career to date Hurricane Fly has won fourteen of his seventeen starts over hurdles and is +£14.30 in level stakes. With over £1,00,000 amassed in prize money for connections, there is no reason to see past him at Leopardstown.

Boasting some of the best racing in the National Hunt season, the January Jumps festival promises to reveal some crucial Cheltenham pointers and for many the road to the Festival will be that bit shorter.

Copyright @ Betview Magazine January 2013 edition.

International Hurdle Preview

International Hurdle Preview

By Stephen Dwyer

There is a great race in prospect at Cheltenham on Saturday. Perhaps the most competitive hurdle race this season sees three course and distance winners out to stake a claim for the festival in March.

Zarkandar is the freshest horse in the race, he beat Prospect Wells in a hard race at Wincanton last month but I am mindful that this race will have taken it out of him. He is the 5/4 favourite and gets 4lb from Grandouet and Rock On Ruby but could be vulnerable to the older horses, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby.

Grandouet won this race last year and hasn’t run since because of injury. He beat Overturn and Brampour that day and beat them easily enough too. Barry Geraghty said he has schooled really well and he is ready to give a very good performance. He has been beaten twice by Zarkandar and coming back from a serious injury he might just need this race so I have to pass him over for Rock On Ruby

Rock On Ruby, the highest rated horse in the race runs off a mark of 170. He has the best Cheltenham form two wins and two seconds at the track, beaten only by First Lieutenant and Bob’s Worth, he has a 245 day layoff to deal with and he missed the fighting fifth because of the ground, Harry Fry says he couldn’t be happier with him and for me he is the one because he is a real grinder and I can see him in the mood for a scrap on Saturday.

Recommendation: Rock On Ruby 2 points win @ 7/4

William Hill Winter Festival

William Hill Winter Festival

By Stephen Dwyer

 

With twelve top quality races across two days, the William Hill Winter Festival at Kempton is the finest mid-season meeting in the National Hunt calendar. A crowd of over 30,000 travelled to Middlesex to attend the festival last year where Kauto Star was the leading attraction. Since William Hill began sponsoring the Winter Festival in 2009, it has been heavily promoted within the industry. The festival features multiple Grade 1 races including the williamhill.com Feltham Novices’ Steeple Chase, the williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle and the William Hill King George VI Chase, all showcase events in their own right.

From a betting perspective the King George VI Chase day at Kempton is one of the busiest of the year. In 2011 it formed a large percentage of the £100m wagered on Boxing Day. The King George is a perennial favourite for punters and layers alike and with a prize fund of £180,000, it attracts the top staying chasers. The race is the centrepiece of the two day William Hill Winter Festival and is second only in the pecking order of National Hunt racing to the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

First run in 1937, the King George VI Chase has been held on Boxing Day since 1947. Arkle, Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid and One Man are among the greats of National Hunt racing to have won the race. Many will acknowledge that for the first time since 2006, there will be no Kauto Star at Kempton.  Winner of five of the last six King George’s, the retirement of the greatest National Hunt horse since Arkle opens the door for the next contender to the throne. Kauto Star retired amidst good company, Long Run, already a Gold Cup and King George winner heads the betting for the King George at odds of 11/4 with race sponsors William Hill. Multiple Grade 1 winner, Grand Crus (9/2) is close to Long Run in the betting and Paul Nicholl’s holds a strong hand with the exciting Silviniaco Conti (5/1) and Kauto Stone (10/1) who is now proven over the trip.

Even without the great Kauto Star, this year’s renewal of the King George is highly anticipated as Kate Miller, William Hill PR Director, noted: “Whilst Kauto Star has dominated the William Hill King George for the last six years, the entries this year demonstrate what a fantastic race it is and the legacy of the King George being the mid-season Championship is set to continue.  As things stand, we are expecting a competitive field with the winner likely to head the market for the Gold Cup next March.”

Thanks in no small part to Kauto Star, trainer Paul Nicholls boasts no less than seven wins in the race and is its leading handler. Aside from the five timer from Kauto Star, he won it twice with See More Business. The King George is a race famed for multiple repeat winners. This is backed up by the statistic that no less than twelve horses have won it more than once.

Favourite for the race, Long Run, has not raced since his Cheltenham Gold Cup third to Synchronised. Beaten twice by Kauto Star last term, the seven year old boasted his only victory of the season when narrowly winning the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury. He has yet to confirm the form showed when winning the King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2010/11 season but his record at Kempton reads 112 so he has a huge chance if back to his best. At times Long Run needs to have his mind made up for him at fences and works best when ridden prominently but he is still a brilliant horse and you cannot safely discount him.

Both Long Run and Grand Crus have won the williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton. Last year Grand Crus ran out a hugely impressive winner of the 3m race when eased down ahead of Silviniaco Conti. Grand Crus has not raced since his fourth in the RSA at Cheltenham but has won twice on his seasonal reappearance and David Pipe’s grey is a class act.

The Nicky Henderson team saddle Finian's Rainbow who overcame early jumping errors in his races last season before comfortably winning the  John Smith's Melling Chase at the Aintree Festival. Finian's Rainbow is unbeaten at Kempton, he won his bumper by 6l in 2009 before outstaying Wishfull Thinking in the Grade 2 williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase at the Winter Festival last year. He has yet to race beyond 2m 4f but he showed stamina in abundance in Aintree and may stay the trip. Another entry worth noting is Kempton Park specialist Nacarat, he has won both the Racing Post Chase and the Racing Plus Chase at the track and has run in the last three renewals of the William Hill King George VI Chase.

Finally, Cue Card is an intriguing contender. He demolished a useful field in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter recently. In beating Menorah and Edgardo Sol, the odds of Cue Card were slashed from 20/1 to 8/1 for the King George. Cue Card’s jumping improved readily towards the business end of the race and his speed allowed for a 26 length victory. Trainer Colin Tizzard has always had Kempton’s Boxing Day highlight in mind for his six-year-old and said after his win at Exeter: “If he’s ever going to get three miles, it will be around Kempton. Pace is just not an issue for him as he was always cruising. He used to tank but he was a lot less fizzy than he normally is on his first run back. When Joe squeezed him up, he was gone.” What is also interesting is that the dam of Cue Card, Wicked Crack, was a three time winner over three miles in Ireland for Eddie Hales so on the face of it, Cue Card is equipped to stay the trip.

Though the highlight of the meeting is the King George, there are several other top class Grade 1 races to contend with. The Christmas Hurdle, won by Binocular for the past two years is always an exciting race and the Feltham Novices' Chase aims to be as competitive as ever.

With stiff fences and a short run in, you need a horse that can jump and travel well at Kempton. With several runners unbeaten at the track, this year’s William Hill Winter Festival promises to be as exciting as ever.